It’s hard to know what will happen once they open envelopes on Oscar night. Which makes predicting the 2016 Oscars a challenge.
And that’s quite unusual. Most of the time, there’s a handful of films or performances that just win everything leading up to the big night. Sometimes you get a film that sweeps (Lord of the Rings, Titanic, Slumdog Millionaire), or a performance that had the gold locked in well before the night arrived (Daniel Day Lewis, Helen Mirren, Heath Ledger). In recent years, the deluge of pre-Oscar awards ceremonies have made judging the outcome a more precise process, with critics’ awards, guilds, reviews and box office all adding up to a statistically probable outcome.
The list, as it stands, seems perfectly reasonable a representation of the best of 2015 in film.
The Academy is made up of branches, so everyone votes in their branch, and Best Picture. Sound editors vote for sound, and Best Picture. Actors vote in the four acting categories, and Best Picture, and so on down the list. Once the nominations come out, everyone then votes again, this time in all categories. Say you’re a nominated sound engineer for Star Wars, and you want the votes of your fellow Academy members. You have to somehow convince the likes of Judi Dench of your merits, and hope that she gives a toss about the minutiae of being a foley artist.
Good luck with that one, Poindexter. It’s an insane scenario.
Also, none of it really matters. It’s not really about merit, it’s more about publicity and hype. People have said they vote for how they want the show to go, so they’re voting for the outcome of a live broadcast TV variety special. It’d be funny if that energetic Italian man wins something, so I’ll go on and vote for him to win Best Actor for that holocaust comedy he did. At the end of the day, it’s a name on a list, and if you look at the list of the best films ever made, you’ll see some as Best Picture winners, some as nominees, and others completely absent from both. Winning means your work meant something to some people at a certain point in time. Doesn’t necessarily mean it’s good; losing doesn’t mean the opposite. All of it… just … is. A nice night out. Frocks, speeches, tears, cartwheels and hard-ons. And the rest of us get on with our biznich.
That there weren’t any people of colour nominated in the acting categories is a different issue; I honestly think it’s a Hollywood problem, not an Academy problem. If you cast more people of colour in more films that bring out their strengths, spend more money making, promoting and marketing these films, and provide commensurate support to them, the awards people will doubtlessly follow suit. But if instead you just give the voting branch what they were given in 2015, they will vote accordingly. The list, as it stands, seems perfectly reasonable a representation of the best of 2015 in film. There is nobody on any of these lists unworthy of nomination. But, again, ‘worthy’ isn’t the issue.
I used to be able to predict with some reliability. Now, it’s pure guess work. Were it up to me, Inside Out would win Best Picture, because it was, and is, the best of 2015. Best Actor would go to Ian McKellen for Mr Holmes. But nobody asked for my vote (thank you for reading this, by the way…)
Best Picture
The Big Short; Bridge of Spies; Brooklyn; Mad Max: Fury Road; The Martian; The Revenant; Room; Spotlight
I’d suggest The Revenant has this one because I’ve seen it and it’s monumental; it won Golden Globes and the Directors Guild award, plus a swag of BAFTAs. Mad Max may have a shot, but 8 of its 10 nominations were ‘technical’, its script wasn’t nominated, nor were its performances, which says something about where the biggest branch of the Academy (actors) vote. Spotlight is the critical darling, is excellent to boot, and won the Screen Actors Guild best ensemble award (traditionally, a harbinger of sorts). The Big Short won the Producers’ Guild Award, which is also usually a good indicator… I’d once have had wagered real money on The Martian winning based on it being well-regarded and supremely popular. But there’s a problem with the next category…
Best Director
Adam McKay, George Miller, Alejandro G. Inarritu, Lenny Abrahamson, Tom McCarthy
No Ridley Scott (The Martian) came as a shocker. I was sure they’d give it to the old boy as a career achievement award, but no. Which leaves the rest of them, and any of them seem worthy. Inarritu’s work is the most unique and distinctive, but he won last year. Miller’s is for an action film, which I think is a product of mechanical, technical construction more so than an auteur’s vision. Abrahamson, McKay and McCarthy are new to the show and just made solid, unobtrusive films. Inarritu won last year, and they seldom double down on directors (they’ve done it twice), but he also has the DGA award again. Hard to say.
Best Actor
Brian Cranston, Matt Damon, Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael Fassbender, Eddie Redmayne
All five are great, I promise you that, and any one of them getting the gong would be a win for humanity and acting. The safest bet is probably DiCaprio, he has a lot of light on him, has been 0/5 at this dance up until now and he’s great in everything he does. They have no reason not to fete his work here, and it would look weird if the Globes, SAG-AFTRA and the BAFTAs said yes and Hollywood said no.
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Brie Larson, Jennifer Lawrence, Charlotte Rampling, Saorise Ronan
Tough one. My heart says Saoirse Ronan, so wonderful and confident in Brooklyn; my head says Brie Larson, who is truly great in a smaller, darker, more troubling and intense film in Room. Nobody else is unworthy, but it seems to be out of those two. Larson’s got the full swag of gold so far, too.
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, Tom Hardy, Mark Ruffalo, Mark Rylance, Sylvester Stallone
Stallone winning would be a wonderful narrative: he came out of nowhere 39 years ago with the original Rocky and got nominated for Best Actor and his script, losing both to Network. I’d love to see him win, as it’s been a long time between drinks (and a wealth of crap) for him and he’s really, really great in Creed. But there’s something about Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies. He’s the best thing about a great film.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, Rooney Mara, Rachel McAdams, Alicia Vikander, Kate Winslet
Rooney Mara is the anchor of the marvelous Carol. Alicia Vikander made a huge splash at the movies last year, so she may have this one. But Kate Winslet, she’s the best thing in Steve Jobs. And she’s always good in everything she does.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short, Brooklyn, Carol, The Martian, Room
Hardest category. Aaron Sorkin’s name not being on the list for his dense, wordy Steve Jobs script is a curiosity for the ages. I’d suggest The Big Short, because it might be a consolation prize for Adam McKay, who is unlikely to win for directing. But any of the rest of these scripts is worthy of a prize. The Martian was superbly written, and adapted its source material brilliantly.
Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Spotlight, Straight Outta Compton
Spotlight for the win. Smart film about smart people doing smart writing. Amy Schumer’s funny script for Trainwreck would have been a welcome addition to this list.
Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa; Boy and the World; Inside Out; Shaun the Sheep Movie; When Marnie Was There
Pretty easy call. Pixar wins most of the time in this category, deservedly so.
Best Cinematography
Carol, The Hateful Eight, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Sicario,
The Revenant for its use of natural light, The Hateful Eight because of its stunning use of magnificent 70mm, Sicario because Roger Deakins is marvelous and overdue, Mad Max because of that film’s technical proficiency. Carol’s beautiful, too. I’m guessing The Revenant. Guessing, let me remind you. Don’t wager the farm on that outcome.
Best Costume Design
The Danish Girl had the nicest frocks.
Best Film Editing
The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Spotlight, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Fury Road had the most, it could win, I guess. And give it awards for Makeup, Production Design and Sound Editing while we’re at it.
Best Visual Effects
Ex Machina, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Fun facts here: a film nominated for Best Picture with a nomination in Visual Effects, is a lock to win the latter category. The last time a film won for visual effects when one of its fellow nominees was a Best Picture nominee (and it wasn’t) was in 1970, when Tora! Tora! Tora! beat Patton. Since then, it’s happened every single time (1977, 1981, 1982, 1994, 1995, 1997, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013). This year? Three of the five nominees are also Best Picture nominees, and the fourth is Star Wars. So the sole thing I know, is that Ex Machina has a tough road ahead of it.
Throw in additional Star Wars: The Force Awakens wins for Score and Sound Mixing, unless there’s a Mad Max sweep in the technical categories. Or they share it around. Seriously, it can go any way.
Best Original Song
“Til It Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground, one might presume. They don’t really write songs for movies anymore, so this category comparatively lacks the weight it once had.
The other categories (documentaries, short subjects) need better-informed experts to venture a guess. And guess work is what it’s all about. Until then, just enjoy your evening. I certainly will, alongside my special guests Vanessa Redgrave, the spectral apparition of George C. Scott, and Sacheen Littlefeather, who’ll come along and harsh everyone’s buzz.