Here’s what I know about the nominees for the 89th Academy Awards: art is not a contest and awards shows are nonsense. But it’s fun nonsense, with all the dresses and everything, right? And what chance would any of us have to see something like Moonlight, a pure, soulful but tiny miracle of a film, had it not been for awards shows and their potential as publicity and money generating machines?

Speculate all you want, and tune in for the glitz.

Picture: This year is a rare treat for an awards season – you see a selection of films labelled among the year’s ‘best’ and having seen all of them, I have to agree – there’s nothing here which is wildly out of place. In fact, among my top 10 films of 2016, the top 5 are represented here (Arrival, Hell or High Water, La La Land, Moonlight, Manchester by the Sea). The remaining four nominees are either rousing and thoughtful entertainments (Hidden Figures, Lion), superb acting vehicles (Fences) or masterful exercises in technical spectacle (Hacksaw Ridge). There’s little value in debating or speculating the outcome – a feel good musical starring two beautiful people, with 14 nominations will win. How could it not?

Director: Again, not much to debate here about the likely outcome, just how they’ll reach it. Mel Gibson has been on the outer of Hollywood for a decade or so, and did good work in Hacksaw Ridge, but in all truth laid it on a bit thick (the first hour was heavy on both melodrama and cliché). Arrival has been on the outer of much awards talk this year, and is one of those ‘honour to be nominated’ pieces – although it’s a winner to me. Kenneth Lonergan’s work is more highly regarded in writing than it is in directing, so he’ll probably pick up the consolation prize for Manchester by the Sea, and I’d happily see Barry Jenkins get a gong for Moonlight, but again, see consolation prizes (aka screenwriting). Damien Chazelle wins for La La Land, if for no other reason than that opening scene on the LA freeway off-ramp.

Actor: Casey Affleck has had a lot of light on him and raked in many awards, but the revival of a long-standing sexual harassment lawsuit may have cast too much light on him, and in Hollywood there is such a thing as bad publicity; Viggo Mortensen was excellent in a fine, if little-seen film in Captain Fantastic; Ryan Gosling, good as he was in La La Land is not the reason people love that movie as much as they do (see Best Actress); Andrew Garfield was very good in a not very-well written film, but this nomination ought to see him go more, larger, bigger places; Denzel Washington is beyond compare in Fences and his recent SAG award should seal the deal for him, in an award for a consummate actor in a consummate actor’s showcase.

Actress: If you ran these things based on merit, there would only be one nominee here – Natalie Portman. But it’s more of a show, so we need to consider Golden Globe winner Isabelle Huppert in the under seen Elle; Meryl Streep in a great performance, but not one of her greatest performances; Ruth Negga in Loving, a film that went mostly under the radar; and the actual reason people love La La Land as much as they do. Me too. Great. That Amy Adams isn’t on this list will puzzle me for as long as I live.

Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali has a lot of light on him and gave a moving speech at the SAG awards – he’s of colour, and a Muslim, and rewarding his commanding, beautifully nuanced work in Moonlight may send a fine message to middle America; Jeff Bridges, well, he’s just great, but well-rewarded thus far; Dev Patel was the best thing about Lion, but his is a lead, not supporting performance; Lucas Hedges should take his nomination and go on to be a super hero movie star or something, and he probably will; Michael Shannon’s just there for the ride and oddly subbing for Golden Globe winner Aaron Taylor-Johnson’s grandiose turn in the same film (Nocturnal Animals). Weird how it works, and how Hugh Grant is here denied a moment in the sun.

Supporting Actress: If Viola Davis doesn’t win, who knows what will happen. Earthquakes, perhaps? Weirder things have happened. Not to diminish the work of the others, but theirs were comparatively cameos… as good as Michelle Williams was, or Nicole Kidman’s handful of scenes in Lion; the generous arc Naomie Harris was given in Moonlight; or the less showy turn Octavia Spencer gave in Hidden Figures. Viola Davis is superb in everything she does, well past due for recognition, and blindingly, awesomely powerful in Fences.

Original Screenplay: Hell or High Water was first class storytelling, no doubt; La La Land, too, but for the fact that the film is more about the look and the songs than it is the script; The Lobster’s brilliant script would win if this category was ‘Most’ original screenplay; 20th Century Women is the left field entry that gets Mike Mills a nod for showing up; but Manchester by the Sea gives writer-director Kenneth Lonergan the chance to step up to the podium on Oscar night of his work with the words, rather than the mise-en-scene.

Adapted Screenplay: Arrival was superbly written, but that film’s gonna get ignored this year aside from maybe a few technical nods; Fences was in no way cinematic, more of a play filmed on location, so not so much of an adaptation; Hidden Figures is popular and important, but the nomination will probably do; Lion may have some shortcomings in that the second half of the film is not the best kind of cinematic adaptation; Moonlight is an original screenplay in all-but-name. Barry Jenkins made a profound film, and on debut to boot. They love giving these awards to auteurs as consolation prizes for not winning the big one.

Animated Feature: Zootopia, probably. Very enjoyable, hugely popular and original piece of work. Not only a fun animated piece, but a well-constructed detective story to boot.

Foreign language Film: I’d have said Toni Erdmann, but Trump’s recent (selective) Middle Eastern travel ban prevents The Salesman’s Iranian director Asghar Farhadi from attending the awards. A win will put the Oscars in the news headlines with hundreds of millions watching.

Documentary Feature: I’d wager Ava DuVernay’s 13th for the win, what with its troubling relevance to current events today.

Score: They used to have special achievement awards when there was clearly no competition in any given category. La La Land.

Song: Bless them for nominating songs from films other than La La Land. Have a fun night out Sting… you, too Justin Timberlake. Lin Manuel Miranda’s song from Moana might win, making him the youngest EGOT ever… but don’t count on it.

Sound Editing; Sound Mixing: They tend to give sound awards to highly regarded musicals. Although, Arrival is nominated in both categories, as is Hacksaw Ridge. But it’s much of a muchness here – but poor Kevin O’Connell – if he loses for Hacksaw Ridge he’ll be 0-21 at the big show.

Production Design: Probably La La Land, but Fantastic Beasts was also quite scenically pretty, despite overall film suckage.

Cinematography: Fantastic selection here: Arrival’s amazing use of light’; La La Land’s movement and colour; Lion’s sharp contrasts between India and Tasmania; Moonlight’s brilliant depth and contrast; Silence’s use of wide lensing and breathtaking exteriors. Anyone deserves it.

Makeup: One could not possibly care less between two ordinary films (Star Trek Beyond; Suicide Squad) and a third, obscure, unseen Swedish one (A Man Called Ove). Deadpool, for all its reviews and popularity, couldn’t swing a nomination here – or anywhere.

Costume Design: La La Land could easily sweep, but aside from Natalie Portman’s greatness, the thing that popped about Jackie was its costuming. Should nominee Madeline Fontaine win, she’ll doubtlessly have to share the award with Oleg Cassini, Chanel, Givenchy, and Dior.

Film Editing: It’s hard to edit a musical well. Sort of open slather here, but again, perhaps not.

Visual effects: The rulebook got thrown out last year with this category, and depending on who you ask, the Rogue One effects were either brilliant or distracting. The Jungle Book was beautifully, seamlessly done. Anyone here winning would be good in my book (which you’re reading).

Tune in, Live, February 26-7 (depending on timezone). Jimmy Kimmel hosts. Enjoy!

(but don’t think that it actually matters)